How to Avoid Looking Stupid

We have all done it, jumped to the wrong conclusion, acted on it and then looked stupid.

We are genetically designed to do it.

There is even an explanation for it.  It is called the “ladder of inference”.

Here is how you climb it:

The ladder of inference

Step 1: Take in the facts, the reality of the situation, everything there is to see and hear:

A crash, busy junction, yellow car, blue car, a bicycle, skid marks, two people, an ambulance, a man, a woman, note books, onlookers…

Step 2: Select the facts that are relevant, you can’t work with everything, too much information is over-whelming so focus on the facts that are pertinent:

One of the drivers is a woman, the other is a man

Step 3: Interpret the facts, add some meaning based on your experiences and beliefs:

My wife is a lousy driver therefore the woman must be a lousy driver

Step 4: Draw conclusions:

The woman caused the accident

Step 5: Build your beliefs:

All woman drivers should have their driving licences taken away.

Step 6: Take action:

Petition on street corners and write to your Member of Parliament

And that is the ladder of inference, we climb it every day without thinking, though it might better be described as “the spiral stairway to stupidity”.

The spiral stairway to stupidity

In theory the thinking process is fine, in practice it is flawed.

Why?

Because it is self reinforcing, it isn’t a ladder at all, it is a spiral.  The beliefs you develop and hold (step 5) influence the facts you select (step 2) and the interpretation you make (step 3).

The older you get, the more times you have spun round the spiral, the tighter it gets and the less you think.  (I am 44, it is a bit of a worry).

So it is very easy for you, and me, to run off and do something foolish.

Avoiding the inevitable:

Once you know the steps it is easy to avoid a fall:

• Draw up the stages in your logic and write down how you came to the conclusion you did.  Facts, assumptions and conclusions, step by step, the whole nine yards.  Then challenge yourself, hard.  Does it really make sense?
• When you are happy with your conclusion show the logic to somebody else with different outlooks and beliefs (preferably not your misogynistic twin brother) and ask them to critique it.

Of course, you don’t have to do any of this, it is hard work being explicit, and as for asking a colleague to critique your work, they are critical enough without being invited in…

But then I don’t care if you look stupid.

And your mother will shrug it off.

So you are only fooling yourself if you don’t.

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Image by sjdunphy