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The Planning Fallacy

11 July, 2022 by James Lawther Leave a Comment

Example of The Planning Fallacy Sydney Opera House

The Sydney Opera House Perhaps the most famous example of the planning fallacy is the Sydney Opera House. Located on Bennelong Point on the banks of Sydney Harbour in New South Wales, the Opera House was designed by the Danish architect Jørn Utzon and opened to the public in 1973. It is one of the […]

Filed Under: Blog, Wild Cards Tagged With: anchoring, assumptions, capital investment, planning, planning fallacy, project management

Mental Models and the Long Way to Liverpool

12 June, 2020 by James Lawther Leave a Comment

Mental Models We all rely on mental models to guide us through life. They are our maps of reality and we use them to get the best outcomes possible. But where do those models come from and who is to say they are right? A family wedding A few years ago I went to a […]

Filed Under: Blog, Employee Engagement Tagged With: assumptions, beliefs, communication, human nature, ignorance, learning, mental models

Sweat the Small Stuff

25 March, 2019 by James Lawther Leave a Comment

TED Talk Rory Sutherland Rory Sutherland points out that big, strategic, expensive initiatives don’t always work. There are a myriad of small projects that are just as powerful. Although big important people like big important projects, the money that they throw about is often wasted. Rory urges us to figure out what the small inexpensive […]

Filed Under: Best of the Web, Blog, Process Improvement Tagged With: assumptions, capital investment, continuous improvement, Rory Sutherland, TED talks, waste

It Stands to Reason…

23 January, 2019 by James Lawther 3 Comments

Test and Learn

Books or concrete? Imagine you are on the board of an educational charity.  You are trying to improve the standard of education in Sub-Saharan Africa. How should you invest the charitable donations?  What would be the most effective way to spend the money? In his book Adapt, Tim Harford tells the story of the Dutch […]

Filed Under: Blog, Process Improvement Tagged With: assumptions, continuous improvement, human nature, learning, test and learn

Better to Be Approximately Right Than Precisely Wrong

12 July, 2018 by James Lawther 4 Comments

Ice-cream van

Spurious accuracy Thirty years ago I sat in a factory office with my head bowed low, looking at the dirty grey lino floor.  My boss, a middle-aged, overweight man wearing a white coat smeared with ice-cream was berating me in a broad west country accent. Apparently I was wasting both my time and his.  I […]

Filed Under: Blog, Operations Analysis Tagged With: analysis paralysis, assumptions, over-processing, spurious accuracy, statistics, test and learn

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