False positive and false negative Lots of us are paid to make decisions: Maybe you decide how to treat a patient Maybe you decide if a prisoner is guilty Maybe you decide how much soup to prepare Maybe you decide if a payment is fraudulent Maybe, maybe, maybe. There are plenty of decisions to be […]
Decisions, Information and the Perfect Organisation
Flawless Decision Making We believe in the perfect organisation. It works a little bit like this: There is a charismatic, wise and intelligent leader, who makes all the crucial decisions. A clear hierarchy supports the leader, with defined roles and responsibilities. Data passes up through that hierarchy, providing the leaders with perfect information. Everybody acts with […]
I Feel the Need, the Need for Speed
How to win a war Historically there have been two ways to win a battle: Recruit a bigger army Build more powerful weapons They were the only variables that mattered. Size and Power. The number of soldiers you had and the calibre of their guns pretty much determined if you would win. Conflicts were wars […]
Let’s Try It and See
Test and learn I love hanging around musicians. I love their energy and perspectives that are different from mine. That’s why I was hanging out in a music studio on a fine summer day a few years ago while a recording session was underway. The band had been going for an hour or so when […]
Estimates and Anchors
Sometimes you will be asked a question and you won’t know the answer… How many customers will call? How many products will you sell? How much will the project cost? Sometimes you have to start with an estimate. How do we estimate? Let me explain with a question: how many people live in my home […]
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